Thought of the Week:
I’m a member of the Conference Board’s Government Relations Executive Council (GRE). The GRE is made up of the government relations leads from some of the world’s largest companies, and it includes such household names as Mattel, J.M. Smucker, John Deere, and Warner Music. The Government Affairs departments at these companies range from Air BnB’s 70-person global government affairs team to Emerson’s one-woman shop. The GRE meets three times a year—typically, once at the Conference Board’s New York headquarters, once at a member company site, and once in Washington. This week, we visited Lowe’s 25-story Tech Hub in Charlotte, NC, which despite President Biden’s Oval Office address and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech to a joint session of Congress, had been thrust to the center of the American political universe (North Carolina Governor Cooper remains on the shortlist for the Democratic vice-presidential slot and former president Trump was holding a rally just down the street). The agenda was jam-packed. It opened with a fireside chat with Tracy Dodson, Charlotte’s Assistant City Manager, and Lee Lilly, Governor Cooper’s Economic Director. They spoke to the “special sauce” that makes North Carolina the second-best state in the nation to do business, and they raised the fact that location, talent, and incentives were the keys to attracting business to the city and state. I was pleased to learn that Mr. Lilly was familiar with both Summit Agro and OneH2. Next, new members to the GRE, including Southern Company, the University of Central Florida, and Enviri profiled their organizations; interestingly, SCOA is a client of Enviri’s Harsco division. A political consultant took us on a deep dive into North Carolina politics where a far-right candidate is facing off against a far-left candidate for governor, and the only question about the legislature is whether Republicans will keep their super majority. We took a site visit to Bank of America stadium where both the Panthers and Charlotte FC play; the discussion there was about how the city was able to attract $800 million for various upgrades. Day 1 concluded at Lowe’s Tech Hub where each of us, using Apple’s Vision Pro virtual immersion technology, designed our own kitchen. Day 2 focused on case studies. Winnebago took us through their lobbying of an Iowa state bill that would have allowed citizens to bring guns to work. The company avoided a fight over the second amendment by framing the debate as one about property rights, not gun rights. Virginia Tech University highlighted a win in attracting Amazon’s HQ2 to Virginia and a loss—the failure to land a new arena in the state for the Washington Capitals and Wizards. Clorox closed the session by describing how they were able to avoid being placed under the Defense Production Act but still meet the 5x increase in demand for product wipes during Covid. The meeting concluded with the Brennan Center for Justice moderating a war gaming scenario around a Trump win in November. One of the takeaways was the importance of gaining on the record commitments from public officials about their policy positions before an election takes place. In fact, by advocating for the Global Investment in American Jobs Act and various Open Investment Policy statements, the Washington office has been doing just this in partnership with our Global Business Alliance (GBA) trade association. The GRE is a close-knit group who have been sharing best practices for years. Although the meeting was as lively as ever, lurking below the surface was an underlying concern about what this election might bring to business regardless of who wins. In terms of predictions, the consensus was the Senate would go Republican, the House would tilt in favor of whichever party wins the presidential, and that former President Trump has a slight edge in terms of Electoral Votes (the thinking being that excitement around Vice President Harris will subside, the race will tighten, and the election may come down to a referendum on one candidate or the other). Although optimists and pessimists reside within the government affairs space, the bottom line take away from the entire meeting was that with populism so prevalent on both sides of the aisle, big business may land as the proverbial man without a country.
Thought Leadership from our Consultants, Think Tanks, and Trade Associations
Eurasia Group Says President Biden Will Fade Into the Background as the 2024 Campaign Goes On. President Biden’s Oval Office address signaled that he believes he is fit enough to continue in the presidency for another six months, despite Republican calls for him to resign and turn the office over to Vice President Harris. After his exit from the presidential race, it is likely that over the course of the campaign, President Biden gradually fades from the public spotlight as attention focuses on Harris and Trump. To avoid imperiling her presidential bid Democrats have a clear incentive to let Harris take center stage and see the president exit public consciousness over the coming months. Republicans are eager to both saddle Harris with the charge that she helped cover up Biden’s health issues and to force her into the presidency as soon as possible, which would detract from her ability to campaign and could burden her with the negative public perception of the Biden administration. Regardless, the GOP will continue to allege that Biden is unfit for office. With Harris at the top of the ticket, this tactic is likely to meet only modest success. Harris is much younger than Biden and did not play a central role in his White House. She is also 19 years younger than Trump, allowing her to create a contrast as a fresher face than the former president.
Observatory Group Previews a Potential Harris 1.0. President Biden’s exit from the presidential race has made Kamala Harris the presumptive Democratic nominee to face former president Trump in just over 100 days. Although Trump is still favored for the moment, Harris has more paths to win than Biden previously did. In fact, the situation is fluid. It is important to note that Harris has yet to release any policy platform, but when she does, it is unlikely to deviate too far from the Biden agenda—she is the sitting Vice President, and being critical of White House policies as Vice President, even while running for president, is unlikely. So, a Harris 1.0 Administration would look a lot like Biden 1.0; still, some differences will emerge. During her time as a senator and her brief campaign for president in 2019, Harris ran decisively to the left of Biden on economic, tax, climate, and healthcare policy. Many of her proposals would require congressional action to implement, and thus, with a likely Republican Senate, it would be unlikely to become a reality. However, they do give insights into how she would likely govern as President. From a geopolitical perspective, Harris would continue many of the Biden Administration’s initiatives, with a few notable exceptions. For example, Harris would be willing to criticize Israel’s prosecution of its war against Hamas more forcefully and would likely take a more assertive stance on human rights abuses and democratic values abroad (especially as it relates to China, North Korea, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Iran). Additionally, who serves in an administration will have policy implications as well. Harris’s first test on personnel will be her choice for a running mate. Will she choose someone who doubles down on her current policy inclinations (like Trump did with Vance), or will she pick someone with left-of-center but more moderate views on policy? Time is short, and many of the answers to open questions will emerge over the next two weeks.
“Inside Baseball”
Punchbowl News Surveys K Street and Hill Leaders about the RNC. The Canvass polled senior congressional staffers and K Street leaders about last week’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. The following are some of the more surprising results:
- Nearly 80% disapproved of Donald Trump’s VP pick, Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), preferring Virginia Gov. Nikki Haley and Sens. Scott (R-SC) and Rubio (R-FL) also fared better than Vance.
- Most thought Haley was the most effective uniter and the next-best VP choice after Youngkin.
- Only 34% believed Trump’s 90-minute speech would help his reelection chances.
- Most thought Michigan Gov. Whitmer would be the best Democrat to beat Trump if Biden stepped aside. A majority correctly predicted Vice President Harris would replace President
- Overall, 51% of respondents thought the convention was effective in appealing to moderates and swing voters, and 71% said Trump will win in November.
In Other Words
“This is the most exciting group of white men I have ever seen,” Democratic strategist Caitlin Legacki on the Veepstakes.
Did You Know
The 1924 Olympic Games in Paris has a strong claim for the best U.S. “away” Olympics ever. That year’s team, which featured Hawaiian surfing legend Duke Kahanamoku, Hollywood action-hero Johnny Weissmuller, women’s tennis pioneer Helen Wills Moody, and the first African American gold medalist DeHart Hubbard, won 45 of the summer’s 129 gold medals. Only the 1968 Mexico City team matched that total, and by then there were 210 medal events. A century later, Paris 2024 has 329 medal events, beginning with Friday’s first archery shots to the women’s marathon tape on the 11th.
Graph of the Week
As Prices Rise, Reputations Fall. The latest findings from the 2024 Axios Harris Poll 100 show how company reputations are faring through this time of economic, geopolitical, and technological disruption. Inflation drives down reputations: 71% of company RQ (reputation quotient) scores have declined since 2023. Overall, 44% of consumers say their opinion of companies has recently declined. The Conference Board believes companies should communicate with transparency and simplicity and avoid contentious language and acronyms.
