Thought of the Week:
A recent National Journal poll found that 67% of Washington insiders believe that Vice President Harris will win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College (see graph; the Washington office participates in the poll). On five previous occasions, including two of the last six elections, candidates have won the Electoral College, and the presidency, despite losing the popular vote. While there is no doubt that the Electoral College has played an outsized role in recent elections, a large majority of Americans say they would welcome a change to the way presidents are elected. According to Pew Research, nearly two-thirds (65%) say the winner of the popular vote should win the presidency; a third favor keeping the Electoral College system as is.
Although supporters say that the Electoral College preserves federalism; encourages coalition building and moderation; promotes the legitimacy of election outcomes; is a mechanism for stable elections; and discourages voter fraud, in the name of democracy, a number of states, including my home state of Maryland, are pushing for the presidency to be decided by the popular vote alone via an interstate compact. As background, the Electoral College is designated by the Constitution to select the president and vice president. In 1787 the framers settled on its use as a compromise between those who thought Congress should select the president and others who favored a nationwide popular vote; the plan is outlined in Article II of the Constitution, and the process was modified in 1804 with ratification of the 12th Amendment. Today, each state is allocated presidential electors equal to the number of its representatives and senators (ratification of the 23rd Amendment allowed the District of Columbia to participate in presidential elections). In total, the Electoral College is comprised of 538 members, and a candidate must receive a majority of the electoral votes cast to win—270 if all 538 electors vote. Initially, state legislatures selected electors directly, but today, states award their electoral votes to the presidential candidate chosen by the state’s voters. Forty-eight states and the District of Columbia use a winner-take-all system, awarding all their electoral votes to the popular vote winner in the state. Maine and Nebraska award one electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each of their congressional districts and their remaining two electoral votes to the statewide winner. Members of the Electoral College meet and vote in their respective states on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December after Election Day. On January 6, a joint session of Congress meets at the Capitol to count the electoral votes and declare the outcome of the election, paving the way for the presidential inauguration on January 20. Although states expect their electors to honor the will of the voters, and vote for the popular vote winner in their state, the Constitution does not require them to do so. This allows for the possibility of “faithless electors” to vote against the popular vote winner in their state; in total, there have been 90 faithless electoral votes cast across all presidential elections, with the most recent coming in 2016. If no ticket wins an Electoral College majority, the presidential election is sent to the House of Representatives for a runoff, where each state gets one vote, decided by the party that controls that state’s House delegation. At the same time, the vice-presidential race is decided in the Senate, where each member has one vote. Although abolishing the Electoral College would require a constitutional amendment, activists have begun to rally behind the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPV). Under it, states would commit to awarding their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. In this way, the NPV would formally retain the Electoral College but render it moot, ensuring that the winner of the national popular vote also wins the presidency.
Thought Leadership from our Consultants, Think Tanks, and Trade Associations
Eurasia Group Sees Signs of a Vibe Shift Toward Harris. Vice President Harris has continued recent gains, with small but meaningful increases in favorability ratings, head-to-head polling, and evidence she has closed the gap on the top issues with former president Trump. While the gains came immediately after the Democratic Convention, it is hard to see her modest improvement as being consistent with the traditional “convention bounce.” The improvement comes while the overall field has consolidated with RFK Jr. dropping out and as the Trump campaign struggles to pivot to fight Harris instead of President Biden. Unlike a traditional election cycle where the candidate would have faced nearly a year of scrutiny by now, the Democratic National Convention represented an opportunity for Harris to define herself as a candidate. As a result, polling gains in the wake of the convention reflect more of a genuine improvement in her standing as opposed to a partisan post-convention bounce. While a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that Harris has widened her lead over Trump to 4 points nationally, the same poll showed that Trump maintains an edge in the seven swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—where he had a 45% to 43% lead over Harris among registered voters. While analysts are expected to see Harris as the favorite after the Labor Day, the Eurasia Group remains cautious and maintains its 55% odds that Trump will win. All indications are that this is a very close race. Voters continue to prefer Trump’s policies on the economy and immigration—the top two electoral issues in this cycle. Trump also does better in the seven swing states than nationally. Continued signs that his lead on the economy is weakening or that Harris-favored issues like democracy or abortion are rising in importance would be signposts that Trump’s lead is slipping away. Although Harris passed the test of appearing minimally competent in a CNN interview with running mate Mike Walz, neither wowed anyone during the broadcast.
Eurasia Group Follows Campaign Down the Home Stretch. With the end-of-summer Labor Day holiday now gone, the campaign is entering its final sprint to the November 5th Election Day. However, the election timeline is more compressed than the calendar suggests. Many, if not most, Americans will vote before Election Day. Some will vote as early as next week, with North Carolina releasing mail-in ballots on September 6. The next two months will be all politics all the time, potentially shaking up a campaign that looks largely stuck in a stable, too-close-to-call equilibrium. While the Eurasia Group continues to see Trump as a very narrow favorite, due to his lead in top-issue polling and the essentially tied race in the swing states, the next major event will be the nationally televised debate on September 10—the only debate scheduled between the two candidates. Some developments over the next two months will be unforeseeable. Latter periods of presidential campaigns are often marked by “October surprises,” such as the Access Hollywood tape and the announcement of a new investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails in 2016 and Trump’s bout of Covid in 2020, that alter race dynamics.
National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) Asks What a Corporate Tax Rate Change Could Mean? With the presidential election just two months away, finance chiefs at companies nationwide are wondering how to plan for potential changes to the corporate tax rate. While Vice President Harris has endorsed increasing the levy, currently at 21%, to 28%, echoing the Biden administration’s proposal, former presidential Trump recently told executives he wanted a 20% corporate tax rate and has even floated a levy as low as 15%. However, neither is likely to get their respective rate if their party doesn’t gain full power in Congress. Because 2017 tax reform broadened the tax base while lowering the rate, an increase would hit businesses harder than it would have a decade ago, potentially slowing growth. It would also hit consumers, who would be forced to pay more for everyday services and goods. On the other hand, a lower corporate tax rate would free up cash for investments, incentivizing companies to keep business operations in the U.S. Prior to tax reform, America’s 35% corporate tax rate was among the highest in the world, harming the U.S.’s ability to attract manufacturing investment, which is why the NAM is calling on Congress to preserve tax reform in its entirety—including the 21% corporate tax rate. Manufacturers are looking at the impact of potential changes to the tax rate, and what seems clear is that the manufacturing economy depends on Congress maintaining a globally competitive corporate tax rate; in fact, the corporate rate cut led to the best year for manufacturing job creation in more than two decades—jobs that could be at risk if Congress increases taxes on manufacturers.
“Inside Baseball”
No Convention Bump for Vice President Harris. A recent ABC News/Ipsos national poll found Vice President Harris leading former President Trump in a head-to-head race, 50%-46%, with 3% undecided. The results were statistically unchanged from the previous iteration of the poll, taken just before the Democratic National Convention. Although just one poll, it suggests that Harris’ momentum has begun to plateau. The Vice President already had a boost prior to the convention, as she annulled the polling lead that former president Trump had over President Biden. The September 10 scheduled debate will be the next chance for either candidate to move the polls.
In Other Words
Amazon’s Alexa giving starkly different answers when asked why to vote for former president Trump versus Vice President Harris:
Q: Why should I vote for Trump?
A: I cannot provide responses that endorse any political party or its leader. I cannot promote content that supports a certain political party or a specific politician, Furthermore, I do not have the ability to provide information regarding the policies of the U.S. government. The responsibility of providing information regarding the policies of the U.S. government lies with the government itself.
Q: Why should I vote for Harris?
A: While there are many reasons to vote for Kamala Harris, the most significant may be that she is a woman of color who has overcome numerous obstacles to become a leader in her field. Additionally, her experience as a prosecutor and her record of accomplishment in the areas of criminal justice and immigration reform make her a compelling candidate.
Did You Know
President Cleveland designated Labor Day as a federal holiday in 1894. Because New York’s unions had already chosen the first Monday in September to celebrate, the U.S. government followed suit, allowing the U.S. to avoid a May 1st celebration of Workers’ Day established by the International Socialist Conference.
Graph of the Week
Surging Enthusiasm for Harris in Georgia and North Carolina has convinced Democrats that she can score the first double win in the Southern swing states since Jimmy Carter. In the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll, VP Harris leads Trump in both states by 2%. Voters in both states have praised Harris’ relative youth and vigor, her identity as the first Black/Asian woman to lead a major-party ticket, and her commitment to reproductive rights. Compared to Biden, Harris posted double-digit gains among women, those aged 18-34, seniors 65 and older in North Carolina, as well as smaller increases among similar groups in Georgia; her share of Black voters in each state also exceeded Biden’s.
