Thought of the Week:
It’s that time of year when Lions form prides, Bengals streaks, and Jaguars shadows. And while you may not fly in the Ravens Flock, reside in Raider Nation, or stand with the Bills Mafia, you may be part of the chorus who chant “We Are” in Happy Valley, an appendage to the Aggies 12th Man, or live in The Swamp and roar Tom Petty’s “I Wont Back Down” before every 4th quarter. Many of us spend our Fridays under the lights, Saturdays in college towns, or Sundays at tailgates melding with our football fan tribes. Our team is our team; our coach is our coach; and our quarterback is our quarterback…until they’re not. The characteristics of today’s rabid football fans, whether at the professional, college, or high school level are not entirely unlike what we see in today’s politics at the federal, state, and district levels. Just as you’re unlikely to find a Bears fan rooting for the Packers or a Steelers fan rooting for the Browns, there’s little crossover appeal across the Republican and Democratic political tribes. The D.C.-based consulting firm Delve has recognized that despite nominees shifting positions, even on respective base orthodoxy, tribalism has overtaken politics and policy. Group identity and belonging supersede policy stance. The reasons why tribalism has taken over American politics, run from the rise of Trump to group identity dynamics, to moralized identities, to heightened emotion, to social media. In this tribal environment, political stances are moral battles, and make common ground harder to find. Today’s tribal leaders, former President Trump and Vice President Harris, are representations of how divorced today’s politics has become from even a few election cycles ago—leaders at the top of the ticket aren’t just politicians but figures of unshakeable loyalty that eclipse traditional policy and ideology. Consider that despite multiple indictments, a felony conviction, and shifts on mainstay Republican issues, Trump supporters remain steadfast. Likewise, Vice President Harris’ ascent came despite not winning a single primary vote. What’s more, Harris too has flipped on mainstream progressive positions like fracking and immigration without serious pushback, reflecting her side’s own deep tribal loyalty. It’s not merely that the “moderate middle” no longer exists among voters and elected officials, it’s that inadequate tribal loyalty results in isolation—just ask Sens. Manchin and Sinema. The wave of more than 50 congressional retirements this election cycle reflects dissatisfaction with this polarized climate driven by tribal warfare. For business, understanding these current dynamics is crucial as tribal loyalties are unpredictable, prone to sudden shifts, and unmoored to consistent ideology or policy. Accommodating tribal loyalties can lead businesses down a path of unanticipated consequences, and one role of today’s government relations professional is to assist their company in navigating the nuances of this divided political environment, focusing on strategies that maintain broad appeal without becoming swept up in the shifting tides of tribalism. It may also mean educating companies about the risk of embracing coded language that forces a business toward one team and away from the other. Words, phrases, and slogans are not merely forms of communication but markers of where individuals and groups stand on the political spectrum. “Make America Great Again” or “Black Lives Matter” encapsulate entire worldviews and evoke strong emotional responses. And while such slogans can mobilize the base, they can also alienate those outside the tribe. Similarly, a company’s embrace of “diversity” or “merit” can unintentionally associate one with progressive or conservative tribal values. Syntax is shorthand for a broad set of beliefs, and it enables identification as friend or foe. If a marketing campaign, product launch, or hiring practice crosses the behavioral norms of a tribe, it can become a major problem if that tribe is your consumer base—think of Bud Light or Harley Davidson. Understanding the full range of stakeholders and the political tribes they call home is one key to survival. Through the Washington office’s association, consultant, and think tank network, we’re here to help your division navigate these new political tribal forces, even if “Fear the Turtle” is not your tribe’s mantra.
Thought Leadership from our Consultants, Think Tanks, and Trade Associations
Eurasia Group Says Harris’s Strong Debate is Good for Democratic Morale Even if any Poll Shift is Limited. Former President Trump was the clear loser of the presidential debate, though its impact on the election is more ambiguous given that little has caused significant movements in polling since Vice President Harris became the Democratic nominee. Trump debated in the rambling, divisive style he has used in previous debates. He was unfocused on policy and was flustered by Harris’ attacks, but effectively landed attacks on the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and on his key message of the night: things are bad, and it’s Democrats’ fault. His biggest failure was that he could not stop himself from taking the bait the vice president repeatedly laid for him, resulting in a debate that was overwhelming about the subject that hurts him most: him. Harris was good; she was cogent and effective in what was her first major spontaneous event since 2020. She portrayed herself as a relative moderate on immigration and tax policy—claims that the moderators did not challenge—and largely played a defensive baseline game while Trump made unforced errors. While Harris’s message was primarily “I’m not him,” she was strong on abortion, with a message emphasizing nationwide abortion access. Trump’s remarks on abortion were incoherent and will do nothing to resolve concerns among suburban women that a Trump victory would lead to a federal abortion ban. The major unknown is whether Harris’s good night will affect the polling landscape. Trump lost all three debates in 2016 but won the election; in 2020, he lost both debates but came within a hair of an Electoral College victory. With the electorate highly polarized, post-debate polling movements over the next week are likely to be negligible. However, even small movements could be consequential in an election marked by razor-thin margins in swing states. Harris’s strong performance will help her keep Democratic enthusiasm high for her campaign, which had showed signs of flagging since the Democratic National Convention. Trump remains the narrow favorite (55% odds), with one key being whether Harris can close the gap on her ability to handle economic issues and immigration.
Observatory Group Thinks It’s All About Pennsylvania. With Vice President Harris’ political honeymoon over, and it still unclear whether the debate shifted sentiment in any key state to one candidate over the other, Pennsylvania is shaping up to be the crucial swing state in the 2024 election. The Keystone State, where early voting is set to start next week, is becoming the anchor for both candidates’ strategies to get to 270 electoral votes—its 19 electoral votes will likely tip the election in favor of Harris or Trump. In fact, election analyst Nate Silver suspects whichever candidate wins Pennsylvania will have a 90+% chance of winning the election. Although both Harris and Trump have paths to winning the Electoral College without Pennsylvania, those paths are limited and allow little room for error, each requiring winning virtually all the other swing states to reach the necessary Electoral College margin. If the election in Pennsylvania were held today, Harris would likely win. However, recent data suggests that while Harris has a slight advantage in in the state, her momentum there had begun to fade.
Politico Covers Former President Trump’s Speech to the Economic Club of New York. Former President Trump returned to tariffs throughout his speech to the Economic Club of New York, although he avoided discussing specific proposals he has made in the past, such as 10% or 20% tariffs on all imported goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. He spoke admiringly of President McKinley, who served from 1897 until his assassination in 1901 and helped push through the Tariff Act of 1890 when he was a member of the Ohio congressional delegation. The “protective tariff” policy advocated by McKinley and other Republicans at the time “made the lives of our countrymen brighter and sweeter,” Trump said. The former president also touted the power that he believes tariffs give presidents to force other countries to submit to U.S. demands. “As an example, I stopped wars with the threat of tariffs. I stopped wars with two countries that mattered a lot,” he said. “A lot of people would have been killed, and I threatened tariffs coming into the United States if they don’t make peace. And we made a lot of—we didn’t have conflicts like you have right now.” Trump did not identify which countries he prevented from going to war, and his campaign staff did not respond to follow-up emails on the subject. In a similar vein, the former president threatened to impose tariffs to prevent Chinese auto producers from using Mexico as a base to export to the U.S. and to punish any country that sought to undermine the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. On the latter point, Trump added that he would use financial sanctions sparingly out of concern that overuse could encourage more countries to stop using the dollar in international trade.
Inside Baseball
President Biden Planning to Block Nippon Steel Acquisition of U.S. Steel. President Biden is reportedly planning to formally block the proposed $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel following an investigation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). CFIUS reportedly authored a letter to the two companies on August 31 noting that the acquisition could damage the U.S.’s domestic steel production capacity, and that a standalone U.S. Steel would be more likely to seek tariffs on foreign steel purchasers than a U.S. Steel owned by Nippon. CFIUS noted in its letter that while U.S. Steel “frequently” petitions for trade relief, Nippon Steel “features prominently as a foreign respondent resisting trade relief for the U.S. domestic steel industry.” The reported decision to block the deal by President Biden also comes as Vice President Harris’ presidential campaign is in competition with former President Trump’s campaign to garner support from U.S. union workers, a key bloc of voters. Trump noted in January 2024 that if elected, he would block the acquisition “instantaneously.” Harris also noted during a campaign rally on September 2 that U.S. Steel should be “American owned and American operated,” adding that if elected President, she would “always have the back of America’s steelworkers and all of America’s workers.”
In Other Words
“I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election. I am voting for @kamalaharris because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them. I think she is a steady-handed, gifted leader and I believe we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos,” Taylor Swift, America’s biggest pop-culture icon.
Did You Know
The U.S. Open’s signature drink, the Honey Deuce, brought in more than $10 million for the USTA. The concoction, not dissimilar to Wimbledon’s Pimm’s Cup, combines vodka, a raspberry liqueur like Chambord, lemonade, and the piece de resistance, frozen honeydew-melon balls.
Graph of the Week
CPI inflation continued to slow year-over-year in August, and annual core inflation held at a three-year low. The continued improvement in CPI measures portend further cooling in the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. This inflation data supports the Fed’s strong signaling that interest rate cuts will commence at the September 17-18 meeting.
